Heat Looking to Torch the Mavs

Dan Mohrmann

All it takes to pick a winner for this year’s NBA Finals match-up is one good look and one question. Who can stop Shaq? The answer is easy, no one.

The Dallas Mavericks made a great accomplishment in reaching the NBA Finals. They went through the defending champion San Antonio Spurs and fended off a very balanced Phoenix Suns team to get the chance to win their first NBA title. The only thing standing in their way is a Diesel engine.

On paper the Mavs appear to have an edge because they are 2-0 against the Heat this season. However, Shaq only played in one of those games making that season series win a little controversial. In his one game against Dallas this year, Shaq racked up 23 points and eight rebounds, in only 27 minutes.

Those numbers are an indicator of what the Heat can do if Shaq has enough steam to play every minute—and seeing as how this is the NBA Finals, it’s a good bet Shaq will be in there as much as possible—and if he stays consistent, the Heat should be able to take this one down.

Dwayne Wade is also a threat for the Heat, and will be double-teamed at every opportunity. The addition of guards Gary Payton and Jason Williams makes the decision to double-team Wade risky. Payton still has the ability to create plays and Williams can hit a three when he needs to.

Dallas isn’t going to let the Heat walk all over them, however. Nowitzki proved in the Western Conference Finals that he can be a big game player. His 50-point performance in game five of that series is the kind of thing that will give Dallas a much needed boost in the series. Jerry Stackhouse and Josh Howard might be the wildcards for the Mavs. If they can contribute regularly in the series the Mavs may have a chance to pull the upset.

What the series will ultimately boil down to is if the Mavs can stop Shaq. The Heat are drooling at the mismatch between The Diesel and Mav center Erick Dampier. Shaq is going to be able to get position in the key fairly easily, which means when he gets the ball the Mavs are going to have to collapse on the big fella. Even if Shaq can kick it out to an open man, the Mavs would rather risk Wade hitting a 20-foot jumper than Shaq putting the ball in the basket every possession.

The Mavs are going to have to speed up their game to try and take Shaq out of the equation, but the task is easier said than done. Nowitzki may have to put up 50 points a night. The Mavs will probably be in foul trouble through much of the series. They will make Shaq earn his points at the line instead of cashing them in down low.

The Heat have Dallas outmatched. It’s going to take something special for Dallas to pull it out, and always remember nothing is impossible. The Heat should be able to win in five, if not a clean sweep.

For anyone looking to take an over/under, waiting until halftime is the safest play. If Dallas can run with the ball and score at will, take the over. If it’s a physical game that’s going to be decided in the post, the under should be good. Either way, look for Shaq to grab his fourth ring.