I would not be going out on a limb by saying the Detroit Pistons will win the NBA championship this year but the fact is I do not see anyone that can beat them in a seven game series.  Picking the straight up (SU) winner in the NBA playoff games might be easy but how about picking the winner against the spread (ATS)?

The intensity level experienced in the playoffs picks up dramatically, especially for the home team.  The key to wining in the playoffs and winning the championship is winning on the road and a few teams have the ability to win on the road consistently. The Detroit Pistons and the San Antonio Spurs have the best road records in the NBA.  The Pistons are 27 and 14 for 65.8 win percentage away from home and the Spurs are even better at 29 and 12 for a 70.7 win percentage on the road.

Based on those numbers picking the SU winner in a series might be easy but covering the spread is a completely different story and you might be surprised to find that these elite teams are not covering the lines as often as the general public might think.  Let’s take a pick inside the numbers and find out where the betting value in the NBA playoffs might come from.

The Pistons have the best road win percentage in the Eastern Conference with a 65.8 win percentage; however, the Pistons have the worse ATS cover percentage at 43.9 percent. It might surprise you to find that the team with the best ATS record in the Eastern Conference is the Chicago Bulls at 58.5%.  Let’s take a look at the Lakers as they have the second worse SU road record in the Western Conference for the teams that made the playoffs (Sacramento is one game better) at 18 - 23 for a win percentage of 43.9%.  Pop quiz hotshot, what Western Conference teams has the best ATS record on the Westeren Conference? That’s right the Los angles Lakers are 24 and 16 ATS for a 58.5% win percentage.

As stated above the intensity level picks up in the playoffs and the odds makers will be making larger line adjustments for home court advantages and public perception. Remember the general public loves to bet the favorite and while their will be plenty of SU wins by the favorites in this years playoffs how many ATS cover by these favorites will there be?  The table below has been put into this article to give you a “heads up” during the early rounds of the playoffs and while the table might not pick the winners for you, it will definitely help to keep you off some games you should not be playing.  It is a simple table outlining SU and ATS win percentage by team but sometimes the simplest things in life are the best.

Review the current lines set by the odds makers and compare those lines to regular season games played between he two teams; determine the line adjustment that has been made for home court advantage.  Compare that to the table below and in being selective with the games that have the biggest line adjustments made to them you might just do OK in the playoffs this year.