2007 NFL Predictions - AFC North
While this division is filled with playoff contenders in Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh and one pretender in Cleveland most experts believe that the Cincinnati Bangles will win the division. Baltimore is a slight favorite over Cincinnati at most books. We believe we have a two horse race here and also believe that both Baltimore and Cincinnati can win this division. Baltimore’s defense gives them an upper hand in our book and the offense got a huge boost the addition of Willis McGahee. Cincinnati will get great offensive output this season but their defense is still questionable.
Standings Predictions:
Baltimore 11-5
Cincinnati 11-5
Pittsburgh 9-7
Cleveland 5-11
Baltimore Ravens
Last year I was not sold on the Baltimore Ravens and Steve McNair. Baltimore finished the season 13 – 3 last year and entered the playoffs as slight favorite over the eventual Super Bow Champions Indianapolis Colts. I am sold on Baltimore this year as they will win the ACF North. Willis McGahee will be an impact player to this team and leads by example. With 10 weeks left in the season last year, head coach Brian Billick fired the offensive coordinator and took over the play calling duties. All the ravens did was go 9 – 1 in the next 10 games and the offense improved in yardage and total points scored. Once again this year we will see Billick with the play sheet in his hands calling the plays from day one of the pre-season. Interesting enough it is like the league turned the Ravens schedule upside down as they played within their division in 4 of their last 6 games last year. This year the Ravens play just 1 of their last 6 games in their own division. That puts a lot of pressure on the Ravens to perform early and win often. The key then becomes the Ravens first 10 games as we mention their last 6 games are against San Diego, New England, Indianapolis, Miami, Seattle and Pittsburgh. Without a fast start to the season Baltimore could find themselves in the 3rd spot of this division. Odds to the AFC Championship 9 – 1, Over/Under 9 ½ regular season wins, Odds to win the AFC North Division 9/5.
Cincinnati Bengals
I really would like to put Cincinnati on top as their offense will once again will be on fire this year. Carson Palmer has had a full off season to recover from any lingering effects of his knee sugary. Their might not be a more accurate passer at the QB position then Carson Palmer. The only reason we can not put the Bengals on top is the still unknown defensive performance. Opposite to Baltimore the Bangles start the season with a tough schedule playing Baltimore, Cleveland, Seattle, and New England. Interesting match ups early will be the two non division games with Seattle and New England. Early in the season non division games will mean more to team then later in the season and we should see top efforts from Seattle and New England. Folks that been around for a long time understand what we are talking about, we have had many great plays toward the end of a season when a top NFL team travels out of their division with no real motivation to win the game. Once again these two teams flipped flopped schedules as this year Cincinnati will get play San Francisco in San Francisco, Cleveland at home, and then Miami in Miami. All good closing games considering the weather in Florida and the Bay area. This scheduling will make the difference between finishing 1st or 2nd in the division. Odds to the AFC Championship 7 – 1, Over/Under 9 ½ regular season wins, Odds to win the AFC North Division 3/2.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers came up short last year in defending their title and while the best coaching new hire this has to be Mike Tomlin we believe they will come up just short again. We expect a fast start from Pittsburgh as they draw Cleveland, Buffalo, San Francisco, and Arizona for their opening 4 games, however, things get much tougher as they face Seattle, Denver, Cincinnati and Baltimore in their second 4 games and could end up 4 – 4 at best half way through the season. Their schedule will not get any easier as their last 5 games come against Cincinnati, New England, Jacksonville, St. Louis and Baltimore. While St. Louis might look like the easiest of the 5 games it is not as they will play that game on the carpet in St. Louis. The defense will be sharp under their new head coach Tomlin but the offense is just too inconsistent at this point and can not be counted on. I look for Mike Tomlin to take this team to the top but it will have to wait another year or two. Odds to the AFC Championship 14 – 1, Over/Under 9 regular season wins, Odds to win the AFC North Division 5/2.
Cleveland Browns
Even with a favorable schedule we don’t see the Browns improving enough make an impact this season. The Browns open the season playing 3 divisional games in their first 4 games. The good news is they play host to Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the bad news is they play Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. It will be a challenging task for Cleveland to get off on the right foot. Additionally their remaining and middle of the season divisional game will be on the road. We were big backers of Romeo Crennel when he was hired as the head coach; however, we have not seen the strides made that we and a lot of others believed he could make. Sometimes great offensive or defensive coordinators just don’t make that jump to head coach and this just might be the case for Crennel. While Cleveland did great in the draft this year it will be at least a full year before those draft picks pan out. Personally I do not see the bruising running style of Jamal Lewis fitting or helping. Odds to the AFC Championship 50 – 1, Over/Under 6 regular season wins, Odds to win the AFC North Division 7-1.
We don’t see great futures play here in this division, however, based on scheduling and the very favorable ending schedule for the Cincinnati Bengals; our best pick of the available lines would be to take Cincinnati to win more then 9 ½ games this season.