The Rocket Will Get the Houston Astros Over the Hump

Dan Mohrmann

Forget Carlos Beltran, Craig Biggio, and Lance Berkman. The reason the Houston Astros have been a successful team the last two seasons is because of Roger Clemens.

The man known as The Rocket has done an excellent job of pacing himself the last two seasons, resulting in two of the best years of his career. In 2005 Clemens recorded a career best 1.87 ERA despite going 13-8. The lack of run support from Clemens may have cost him another CY Young, and as the season ended he again looked toward the greener pastures of retirement.

From the moment Clemens departed from the Houston Astros, analysts began asking the question of when, not if, he was coming back. Failing to reach arbitration with the Astros meant Clemens could not sign with them until May 1.

After pitching for a disappointing USA team in the World Baseball Classic, Clemens seemed to pop up at various MLB games. Reports kept surfacing that Clemens’ agent was speaking with the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and the Astros.

All speculation came to an end when Clemens signed a deal to return to the Astros on May 31. For the Houston Astros, this is the best thing that could have happened to them. The team is not playing bad baseball at .500, but the Astros need something to give them that extra boost they had the last two seasons.

If Clemens can get the kind of run support he needed in 2005, the Astros will once again be the surprise team of the National League. With Clemens, the Astros can contend with the St. Louis Cardinals for the NL Central title, but they will more than likely earn the wild card for a third straight year.

Although Clemens has been keeping himself in pitching condition he has been required to make a few rehab starts in the Astros’ farm system. Once Clemens reaches game shape and makes his season debut on June 22, the Astros will be a team to be reckoned with.

The team ERA of 4.64 is No. 20 in MLB at this point in the season. If Clemens can return to form upon his return, the team ERA should decline significantly. Clemens will get the Astros more wins on the road, something the team needs in order to compete with the Cardinals.

From a betting perspective the most significant thing to look at is how the Astros will fare with the over/under upon Clemens’ return. Right now the team is 29-30-5 against the over/under. With Clemens coming back, the over/under should decline a little bit. Right now the average is in the eight to eight and a half range. Clemens can probably bring it down to as little as six and a half. If the Astros can keep up the impressive offensive output, like the 14 runs they scored against Atlanta on June 11, the over/under should be an interesting stat to look at.

Many factors are going to play a part in the destiny of the 2006 Astros. The most significant is the return of The Rocket. He has the ability not only to shake up one statistical area, but the performance of an entire team. If he hasn’t lost his touch it’s going to be an interesting ride for the Astros.