2008 NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST Preview
1. New York Mets -- Had the Mets featured an ace like Johan Santana in recent years, instead of entering camp with last year's train wreck (blowing a seven-game lead in the season's final 17 days) looming over them, we might be talking about consecutive World Series appearances in 2006 and 2007. That's how important Santana can be for this team in '08. But that's not the whole story. Pedro Martinez only threw 28 innings last season, and unless he is fully back from shoulder surgery, the pitching still will be lacking. Age issues remain a legitimate concern with Moises Alou, Luis Castillo and Carlos Delgado, and I'm not sure Brian Schneider won't reveal that the Mets need an upgrade at catcher. This is a very good team, not a perfect one -- even with Santana.
2. Philadelphia Phillies -- Maybe this sounds funny, but the loss of center fielder Aaron Rowand (signed with San Francisco) cannot be underestimated. The guy set the tone for the rest of the Phillies, the glue that held everything together. Even giving the Phillies another mulligan and expecting the usual slow start (it's just the way they do it), we'll know soon whether the loss of Rowand is crippling. The Phillies have the past two NL MVPs in Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley could win the award this year. But the key to the deal is whether Brad Lidge can close games. Brett Myers will be transformed back into the rotation this spring after serving as emergency closer last summer. Big seasons from Myers and Lidge will mean a huge season for the Phillies.
3. Atlanta Braves -- Two consecutive Octobers now without the Braves and you get the sense that while the window of opportunity hasn't closed completely, it's closing fast. Opposing pitchers still have to deal with a middle of the lineup that includes Chipper Jones, Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur. Those are four solid reasons why Bobby Cox, even at 67, still has a chance to manage this team back into the postseason. At 40, starter John Smoltz's health will always be a concern. At 42, Tom Glavine is back where he's most comfortable -- though he's coming off of his second-worst ERA (4.45) since 1988. Biggest questions, to me, are whether right-hander Jair Jurrjens grows into a formidable starter, whether Mark Kotsay can stay healthy to play center and whether Yunel Escobar is ready to play shortstop every day over 162 games. The Braves traded Edgar Renteria to open a spot for him, remember.
4. Florida Marlins -- The Marlins are right back in the place they've always found most comfortable: No expectations. As in, N-O expectations. None. Zero. Like last spring's Nationals, the Marlins don't have one pitcher who's ever thrown 200 innings in the majors. Outfielder Luis Gonzalez (41) has seen more in his career than every other Marlin combined. After Gonzalez and Dan Uggla (28), the most experienced everyday player is shortstop Hanley Ramirez -- and he's 24. That's why Gonzo should be a good fit here both on and off the field. Despite the way things went south with the Dodgers a year ago, Gonzalez's leadership will be valued here. Two key pieces from the mega-trade with Detroit, center fielder Cameron Maybin and pitcher Andrew Miller, will get plenty of attention this spring as they attempt to grow into their major-league cleats.
5. Washington Nationals -- The Nationals will spend the spring preparing to move into their new stadium but, problem is, it won't be a simple move. There are so many pieces -- none of them significant -- to sort through between now and then this spring. The Nats used 13 different starting pitchers last season, and manager Manny Acta mixed and matched them well enough to finish a not-horrible 73-89. But mixed-and-matched is the operative phrase: The Nats won't have a pitcher in camp who won more than seven games last summer (Matt Chico, take a bow). With Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes in the same clubhouse, the Nats may need a police officer more than a third-base coach. Aside from Acta and his staff, it'll be up to veterans Paul Lo Duca, Aaron Boone and Austin Kearns to help police. Good luck with that.