Sports Books Capitalize on Public Desires
Top handicappers know about it. Odds makers know about it. The average bettor hasn’t a clue. Do you? Yes, we are talking about public perception. Sports books make the lines and spreads based on statistics and situations. Then they throw in where they believe the public will fall and publish the final betting line. How big of a difference can that make in a line? Take this year’s Super Bowl as an example.
The No. 6 seed in the AFC (PIT) ended as a 4 point favorite over the No. 1 seed in the NFC (SEA). According to the stats, these two teams were very evenly matched – strong run defenses, balanced offenses, solid quarterbacks and good coaching staffs. So why did the sports books carry the PIT line?
The Seahawks had a very solid performance throughout the playoffs, leading the public to believe that they were not over rated. They won by double digits over both the Redskins and the Panthers with solid performances on both sides of the ball. Everything was hitting on all cylinders for Seattle going into the big game. Nothing here that should sway the sports books toward the Steelers.
Public perception, however, played the key role in the betting line. If you remember, the Steelers put up solid stats in each playoff game – balanced offense, great defense, consistent special teams. BUT, they beat the No. 1, the No. 2 and the No.3 seeds in the AFC. And they did it ON THE ROAD. Not only did they win, but they won convincingly each time. If you listened to the media, they played or probably even formed the public opinion because no team had ever won all playoff games on the road and then went on to win the Super Bowl – but this is the team that could. The public also sees that the top teams in the AFC are much stronger than the top teams in the NFC. Is it coming together for you now?
Remember the objective of a sports book: No matter the outcome, they want to pocket the juice. The odds makers objective is to set the betting lines so nearly the same amount is bet on each side of the game so no matter what happens, they make the juice. The odds makers in Vegas knew they couldn’t put the line out as PIT +2 or even a pick ‘em because the average person would come in on the Steelers, creating a great imbalance in the book. So they had to move the line high enough to overcome the perception. In this case, the public got lucky. Later we will see a case that is much more common.
Even with football gone for this season, public perception is still in high gear for college and pro basketball. Who do you think the public thinks is going to meet in the NBA Finals? The Spurs and Pistons. They met last season, have combined to win the last three titles and both are rolling along with great records this season.
More times than not, the public will be wrong, allowing odds makers to take advantage of them and set a trap. Two years ago the star-studded Lakers were the public’s huge favorite against the not so well known Pistons in the NBA Finals. LA went from a 5-to-1 favorite to an 8-to-1 favorite as the series opened. Money kept POURING in on LA. What happened? Kobe sulked (for whatever reason) and Shaq continued to throw his bricks from the line while pointing fingers. The two superstars tried to carry it all themselves. Detroit, on the other hand, was talented and very team oriented; hardly a selfish person in the bunch. They took it to LA in 5 games and the sports books made out like bandits.
To bring this point home, look at this year in the NBA. We said earlier that Joe Public is expecting to see the Spurs and the Pistons in the finals this year. Few people are paying attention to the sizzling hot Mavericks. Why? Their current reputation is one of a winning record during the season and a short postseason. But for now, they are playing good defense and winning games. Not too long ago (and this was one of our premium plays) the Mavs met the Heat.
As a rule in the NBA, home court is worth about a 3 ½ points (league average this year is 3.36). The line for the Mavs opened around 4 ½. What this means is that on a neutral court, these teams are very evenly matched and the line would be close to a pick ‘em. Reality from a match up perspective could not be any further from the truth! Remember, good teams win at home, great teams win on the road. MAI was 13 – 13 on the road. DAL was 19 – 6. DAL was 4 – 1 in the series straight up as well as ATS (against the spread). They had shot 50%, 49% and 52% from the field. MIA, on the other hand, has two players that are GREAT for the game, but their supporting cast has a few holes in it. Well, kind of like baby swiss kind of holes – all over the place. With Dallas’ great field percentage, Shaq will have to play further out than normal, which opens up the inside game for the Mavs big men and their penetrating guards.
Now, with Dallas favored by 4 ½ at home, one would deduce that on neutral wood, Dallas would win by a point. From the brief analysis we showed above, the Mavs should KILL them. Why the very soft line? You guessed it: public opinion. Joe Public believes that MIA is one of the elite teams in the league. If MIA was a dog getting 9 ½ points, there would be too much money on MIA. Vegas does not bet! They balance the lines for their guaranteed juice. They had to move the line lower to keep the book balanced. Oh yeah, Dallas won the game 112 – 76.
Getting it now? Be aware of this if a betting line seems too obvious. The sports books can also play with you to set a trap as well, so be careful and talk with an expert if it seems like the line is too easy. We identify situations like this as they come up and let our members know what kind of play it is. Then we take the easy game profits from the sports books all the way to the BANK!!! Let the public go where they want, we will take the easy win.