Texas Rangers: Real Deal or Another Pretender?

The Texas Rangers have always been an attractive pick to win the AL West.  In the past few years they have held leads in the division race late into the season but they always get caught at the end by either the Oakland A’s or the Los Angeles Angels.  This season is no different as the Rangers currently lead the A’s by three games and have started the season looking like this may be the year they actually can take the division.

I hate to rain on the Rangers’ parade, but this year isn’t going to be any different.  So far they have led the division because the other teams in it haven’t played very well at all.  The Oakland A’s are underachieving and the Angels are in a funk that they have too much talent to stay in.

It all starts with the pitching staff and always has for Texas.  They are currently going with a four-man rotation of John Koronka, Kameron Loe, Vicente Padilla, and Kevin Millwood.  This foursome is not the type of rotation I see carrying Texas to the promised land and there are several reasons why.

First and most importantly, they will cause the bullpen to break down by late August or early September.  In the 43 combined games started by these pitchers this year there have only been two complete games.  This means the bullpen has had to pick up a lot of slack and will continue to have to do so.  The man with the most wins as a starter, Kevin Millwood (5), also has the highest ERA (4.88) of the four starters.  Plus, the loss of last year’s number one pitcher Kenny Rogers to the league leading Detroit Tigers has also left a huge hole.  Rogers is already off to a 7-2 start with an ERA of 3.32, something that the Rangers will need down the stretch that they won’t have. 

The AL West has always been won late in the season with clutch pitching instead scoring lots of runs.  If the playoffs were determined by a home run contest the Rangers would have to be one of the league favorites every season, but defense and pitching is a huge part of September and October baseball.  I just don’t see the Rangers being able to compete with the A’s late into the season.  The A’s have many proven winners in their pitching staff as well as in the bullpen.  Zito, Blanton, Haren, and Harden are a much better starting four than the Rangers have and it will show late in the division fight. 

The Rangers will continue to be plagued by the same problem that the Colorado Rockies have had in their home ballpark, being outscored at home.  Texas will need to develop some pitchers that can handle pitching in the launching pad that is Ameriquest Field.  They are 9-13 at home so far this season and have continually had trouble holding leads and holding opponents to a reasonable amount of runs to allow their high-powered offense to win games. 

It basically comes down to this: when the A’s face the Rangers in September with the division on the line who would you rather have on the mound; Zito, Blanton, and Haren or Millwood, Koronka, and Loe?  I just don’t see the Rangers having enough to finally win the AL West and take the next step toward a postseason run.

However, Texas is not far from being a serious contender.  They have a murderers row of hitters including Kevin Mench, Michael Young, and Hank Blalock, but until they can hold the other team to fewer runs they will struggle when it matters the most.  They have a very talented core of young athletes down in Arlington, but I would not count on them making a legit run for a few more seasons.